A FEW days ago, in order to "change the situation and reconstruct" for the theme of the 17th session of China's iron and steel circulation to promote the conference held in Suzhou. From the relevant ministries and commissions of the state, colleges and universities, famous experts in the industry, the iron and steel supply chain in the middle and lower reaches of the vice general manager above entrepreneurs, the relevant provinces and cities of iron and steel (association) will lead more than 500 people gathered at the scene, feel the current situation of the steel industry development, on the future development trend.

Shagang Group chairman assistant, director of the board of directors of the department of operations, senior engineer Lu Lihua; Liu Dacheng, professor and doctoral tutor of Industrial Engineering Department of Tsinghua University, vice president of Internet Industry Research Institute of Tsinghua University, Executive vice president of China Industrial Development Research Institute; Yang Jianlong, famous economist and first-class inspector of the Industrial Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of The State Council; Hou Haiyun, deputy chief engineer of Anshan Iron and Steel Group Co., LTD., senior economist at professor and researcher level; Wang Yuyin, manager of the First Division of Shanghai Futures Exchange, was invited to attend and deliver a keynote speech.

Liu Dacheng: Digital reconstruction enterprise new future

In his keynote speech, Liu Dacheng said that data has become the new means of production, changing the industrial model and operation mode of enterprises, thus bringing structural changes to the industrial chain. From the perspective of the current situation in China, under the digital era, how to make supply and demand more match, reduce resource use and reduce carbon emissions is the new future of enterprises and even China.

From the perspective of the industrial revolution, Liu Dacheng believes that the former extended human power, while the re-revolution in the digital age undoubtedly extended human wisdom. In the transformation of the digital age, the most important is the transformation of data, algorithms, computing power and knowledge. Data has become the new means of production, computing power has become the new productive forces, algorithms have become the new relations of production, and knowledge has become the new management paradigm. Together, the four parties build the smart industry and promote its development.

Liu Dacheng introduced that the transformation from data to big data has broken the possibility of "survivor bias" caused by the sample extraction process in the past, and there is enough big data to find the optimal solution at a high speed by discarding the original complex algorithms. At this time, big data has replaced land and capital as the new core factor endowment, and the network connectivity formed by big data and cloud computing has also become the key to the survival of countries and enterprises.

"On the basis of continuous improvement in computational power, non-organic algorithms may surpass organic algorithms, and at that point, human intelligence may even lose relevance to consciousness and lose value." "Liu said.

So what's the future of big data? Liu Dacheng believes that digital technology will revolutionize the perception, transmission, decision and execution stages of supply chain systems. In the future, the traditional passive perception mode will be replaced by the active perception mode. At this time, the intelligent society, the Internet of things everywhere, humans or some executive equipment can more intelligently perceive environmental changes; The transmission part will also gradually transition to global coverage, and the efficiency and scope of transmission will be further improved. The decision-making part will also be assisted by artificial intelligence to make decisions with more knowledge support; Execution will also shift from traditional manpower to autonomous unmanned operating systems.

The more important future is to bring about industrial structure change, that is, upgrade from supply-chain change of forecasting demand to supply-chain 4.0 change driven by demand. Liu Dacheng believes that the enterprise should form the concept of "comprehensive consumer as the center", but is currently in the awkward situation of "consumer polarization". In the supply chain 4.0 revolution, this problem can be solved. That is, the same demand can be balanced with less inventory and less capacity. In the future, the visibility of supply chain networks and rapid manufacturing to shorten the product delivery cycle will become a new competitive advantage among enterprises, thereby eliminating the boundaries between functions and enterprises and achieving connectivity. "The information age realizes the digital interconnection between equipment and people, the network age realizes the digital interconnection between people, and the digital age realizes the digital interconnection between equipment and equipment. Three different eras pursue the scale effect, network effect and scope effect respectively. Liu Dacheng introduced that the digital era will achieve the absolute cost of zero effect through the cyber system and platform ecology.

What is the biggest crisis in China? "Chinese resources are relatively backward," Liu said. We use three times as much resources per unit of GDP as 46 developed economies plus 2, 1.5 times as much as the global average, and last year we emitted 33 percent of the world's carbon dioxide. So, in the future, how digitalization matches supply and demand better, reduces the use of resources and reduces carbon emissions is the future of enterprises and even China."

Lu Lihua: Respond to new changes in the industry with scientific and technological innovation

Lu Lihua, senior engineer and assistant chairman of Shagang Group, director of the business Department of the Board of Directors, took the experience and practice of Shagang Group as an example to explain the coping strategies of steel enterprises under the new changes.

Lu Lihua pointed out that since 2022, due to the frequent local occurrence of COVID-19, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and other factors, the price of bulk materials has been greatly affected, and the operating pressure of the steel industry has increased. In the face of difficulties, Shagang Group has made great efforts to promote technological innovation, green technology transformation and other work, introduced a number of measures, and actively responded to the risks and challenges brought by domestic and foreign factors under the new situation.

Lu Lihua introduced that in strengthening research and development technology, Shagang proposed "to grasp innovation is to grasp development, innovation is to seek the future", attaches great importance to scientific research innovation and high-end product research and development. At present, Shagang Group owns Jiangsu Province (Shagang) Iron and Steel Research Institute and other innovative research and development platforms. It has issued Shagang Group Technology Innovation Management Measures, encouraged technology research and development and patent application, set up innovation committee and science and technology association, and has a total of 439 R&D personnel. The products such as the 600MPa class seismic reinforcement bar developed by the group are of the initiative in China, which make up for the gaps in enterprises and industries, and are applied in the national key projects, which greatly meet the development needs of our country.

In the years of development, Shagang Group has vigorously promoted technological innovation, enhanced the innovation influence of enterprises, and established the first thin strip casting and rolling industrial production line in Asia. In 2019, Shagang Group passed the intellectual Property management system certification and was successfully approved as a national intellectual property advantage enterprise. At present, Shagang Group has 1336 intellectual property rights, led or participated in the drafting of 55 various standards, and innovative achievements are constantly emerging.

In terms of brand building and service upgrading, Shagang Group has invested more than 600 million yuan in information and intelligent construction, established integrated control and big data centers, and formed an efficient quality management system to ensure product quality. At the same time, Shagang Group, based on domestic and international, has established its brand and led the market with its flagship products, constantly improved its service system, provided customers with a full range of pre-sales, sales and after-sales services, and won the recognition of the market and customers with its brand and service.

In promoting green development, shagang group, integrating technical force, the production of each link to the optimization of process technology and equipment, in the industry take the lead in the steel manufacturing process for the circumference of a circular by one-way linear change, summed up a set of the success of the development of green industry chain model, actively carry out recycling use work, reduce the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. The Group vigorously carries out cutting-edge low-carbon technology research, promotes the research and development and manufacturing of green steel products, expands the application field and scope of green steel products, and continues to promote energy saving and carbon reduction in the whole life cycle of steel products.

Aspects in the digital transformation, shagang group, has been basically achieved fusion of "two" and "production and marketing together, controls cohesion, third-rate synchronization, integration industry goods" three-dimensional information operation, pays special attention to the smart project construction, commissioning new mode "high-end wire the whole process of intelligent manufacturing application" project, has completed the construction of the power plant control center, and other controls. To realize the comprehensive concentration and high sharing of information. At present, Shagang has used 99 sets of industrial robots and more than 300 sets of intelligent devices online, grasping the construction of digital factories, and making continuous efforts to create "digital Shagang".

Lu Lihua believes that in the future, challenges and opportunities in the steel industry will coexist for a long time. Under the increasingly complex and severe international environment, the resilience and potential of China's economic development are still very strong. In the future, Shagang will continue to take "doing fine, doing solid and doing strong" as the action guide of enterprise development, and enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises through a series of measures such as stabilizing cash flow, optimizing process and technological innovation.

Yang Jianlong: New energy vehicles, urbanization, high quality energy development will have a direct impact on steel demand

New energy vehicles rise suddenly and show competitiveness in the global market. In the next few years, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 50%, becoming a new growth point of steel demand.

Yang Jianlong, a famous economist and first-class inspector of the Industrial Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of The State Council, made an outlook on the domestic and international economic situation in 2023 in his keynote report.

Yang Jianlong said that the increase of economic downward pressure on the future trend of the steel industry has a direct impact on the judgment, how to evaluate the current economic situation, grasp the future development opportunities, need to be analyzed from many aspects.

"China's GDP chart over the past 20 years shows that events such as SARS, the Wenchuan earthquake, the subprime debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which had a major impact on People's Daily life, did not have as big an impact on China's economy as people thought." "Yang Jianlong said.

, spoke of "seasonal fluctuations" Yang Jianlong said that in the past 20 years of economic trends, "seasonal fluctuations are popping up in many industries, from all walks of life will appear slack season season, like electric power production, consumption, steel production, consumption, etc., each industry the volatility of the summary, with the average algorithm can draw their rule, Ninety percent or more of China's economy can be accurately recorded through standard seasonal fluctuations. On this basis, we can draw a very clear judgment, composed of 1.4 billion China economic internal shock resistance, stability, continuity, regularity and inertia is very outstanding, even in recent years is affected by the outbreak of the new champions league and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, China's economy will continue to maintain its own rule and developing pace.

Yang Jianlong said that in the past 20 years, there have been about four cycles of GDP fluctuations, each of which is five years, which has a lot to do with our five-year plan. In the cycle chart, the difference between "peak, trough" and "peak, trough" is only 0.06, which means that the economic cycle we pay a lot of attention to, including economic policy, is only 6 percent of our overall economic life. Most of us live in this 6 percent, and our price data fluctuate with this part. Such habits and cognition can easily lead people to misunderstand the economic environment and make them forget that the rest 94% of economic life is not their own, which will affect their overall judgment and be detrimental to our grasp of the economic situation, Yang warned.

Yang Jianlong is confident about the future of the steel industry. He believes that although the overall demand for the steel industry is in a downward state, but in recent years, new energy vehicles have risen suddenly, showing their competitive strength in the global market. In the next few years, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 50%, becoming a new growth point of steel demand.

Yang Jianlong said that in the overall layout of the "14th Five-Year plan" there are several highlights worth paying attention to: first, new energy to replace traditional energy has entered the accelerated channel, and the implementation of high-quality energy development will drive part of the infrastructure construction, which will generate more demand; Second, 20% of China's urbanization to the final sprint phase, this 20% is no longer a simple boundary expansion, the scale expansion, but in the existing urban space improve the density of population and land bearing capacity, increase the city community construction, and the surrounding cities to build effective unicom urban agglomeration, "these actions will directly impact on the consumer demand for steel." "Yang Jianlong said.

Wang Yuyin: Steel futures help the development of the industry

Wang Yuyin of Commodities of Shanghai Futures Exchange made a keynote speech on "Play the function of steel futures and serve the steel industry" at the conference. He said that since the listing of steel varieties such as rebar, hot rolled coil and stainless steel, the market has been running smoothly, the delivery is orderly and the risk is controllable. It has played a positive role in optimizing industrial structure and helping enterprises manage price risk in China's iron and steel industry, and the influence of futures market is constantly improving. In recent years, in order to meet the demand of the spot market and serve the industry, the Institute also timely optimized the corresponding rules of rebar and hot rolled coil futures in accordance with the development and change of the spot market to promote the function of futures.

In the future, the previous issue will improve the depth of industrial customer service as the future direction of optimization. The first is to promote contract continuity, through the introduction of steel futures market maker, promote contract continuity. The second is to optimize the delivery process, expand the delivery capacity, increase the deliverable resources, and improve the delivery convenience. Third, we should strengthen the construction of the OTC market, carry out warehouse receipt trading and cross-exchange, promote OTC options and swaps, and meet the multi-level hedging needs of industrial enterprises. In terms of product innovation, the Institute will also accelerate the research and development of cold rolled coil futures, promote the research of industrial wire futures.